--hidden-- | Drafted 8th
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- Recap
- Draft Results
In a draft that sparkled brighter than a dragon's hoard, jay's Spectacular Team secured a majestic grade of A. Their crystal ball predicts a dazzling 10-5-0 record, landing them in the lofty 2nd place. With a projected points total of 1774.46, they seem poised to outshine most of the competition.
Despite facing the 3rd toughest schedule, jay's Spectacular Team remains undaunted. Their strategic prowess shone through with Sam LaPorta as the steal of the draft at pick 33, outshining their worst pick at 93. The trio from the same team adds a touch of unity to their roster, making them a force to be reckoned with in the league.
ADP Analysis
Pick Number
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
Justin Jefferson Player Note
WR - Round 1, Pick 8 - Bye 6
2024 Rank: 7 - 2023 Rank: 7
Jefferson has averaged 98.3 receiving yards per game throughout his career, 12.2 more than any other player in NFL history (Calvin Johnson - 86.1). That includes a career-high 107.4 last season, even though injuries forced him out early from two of the 10 games he played. Jefferson had 543 yards and three touchdowns over the first four weeks of the season while catching passes from Kirk Cousins, later adding 476 yards and two TDs over the final four weeks with Nick Mullens at quarterback. For his age-25 season ahead, Jefferson will enter Week 1 catching passes from Sam Darnold (on his fourth NFL team). The Vikings have other receiving threats in second-year wideout Jordan Addison and sixth-year tight end T.J. Hockenson, although the latter may be absent or limited early in the season after tearing his ACL and MCL on Dec. 26. Addison and Hockenson combined for 1,871 yards and 15 TDs on 235 targets last season, but Jefferson somehow led the team in receiving yards (1,074) for a fourth time in four seasons despite missing seven full games and parts of two others. The question now is whether a likely decline in QB play will be the first thing to hold Jefferson's production down.
Jahmyr Gibbs Player Note
RB - Round 2, Pick 13 - Bye 5
2024 Rank: 12 - 2023 Rank: 12
Perhaps Gibbs will never be among the league leaders in carries, checking in at around 5-9, 200, but he's already shown he doesn't need huge rushing workloads to provide big-time fantasy production. If he can improve on his rookie-year receiving numbers (73.4 percent catch rate, 6.1 yards per catch) while maintaining the excellent rushing efficiency (5.2 YPC) he might soon rank among the league's top fantasy assets. Gibbs should be able to do this even while splitting work with David Montgomery, who steals some goal-line carries but otherwise mostly gets low-value touches like handoffs up the middle. Montgomery's presence didn't stop Gibb from scoring 10 times on 182 carries last year, including five TDs on eight attempts inside the 5-yard line (where Montgomery went 9-for-17 en route to 13 total rushing TDs). Gibbs finished 20th among RBs in carries inside the 5, t-14th in carries inside the 10 (21) and t-13th in red-zone carries (37). Christian McCaffrey was the only player with more red-zone carries and more overall targets than Gibbs, who benefitted both from his own talent and the offense around him. The Lions should have a similarly favorable setup this season for the 2023 12th overall pick, bringing in Kevin Zeitler to replace Jonah Jackson (Rams) at left guard while retaining offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and all their top skill-position players.
Drake London Player Note
WR - Round 3, Pick 28 - Bye 12
2024 Rank: 23 - 2023 Rank: 23
The stars truly aligned for London this offseason, setting him up as an almost-can't-miss breakout candidate for 2024. The Falcons fired Arthur Smith, replaced him with Raheem Morris (head coach) and Zac Robinson (playcaller), signed QB Kirk Cousins and then shocked everyone by drafting QB Michael Penix eighth overall. After playing with lousy quarterbacks his first two seasons, London may be set up for the next decade alongside competent passers. He had 2.03 yards per route as a rookie and 1.90 last season, recording 866 and 905 receiving yards in Smith's run-first offenses. Similar per-route production in a more pass-oriented offense would already be enough to push London over 1,000 yards, and in this case we could see huge volume gains combining with improved efficiency (thanks to Cousins/Robinson) to fuel a breakout season from the uber-talented 23-year-old wideout.
Sam LaPorta Player Note
TE - Round 4, Pick 33 - Bye 5
2024 Rank: 30 - 2023 Rank: 30
LaPorta is looking for an encore after a record-setting rookie campaign in which he established a new high for catches by a first-year tight end (86) and had the fourth-most yards (889). He ranked fourth in catches and fifth in yards at his position last year, and his 10 touchdowns were at least four more than every other tight end scored. Remarkably, nine of those 10 TDs came at Ford Field, even though 63 of LaPorta's 120 targets came on the road. The 2023 second-round draft pick continued his success in the postseason, recording nine catches in two of Detroit's three playoff games after reaching that total only once during the regular season. LaPorta has a clear path to heavy usage again in 2024 after the Lions parted ways with WR Josh Reynolds (64 targets in 2023) without making any major additions on offense, but LaPorta will have a tough time replicating his scoring prowess barring an increase in red-zone targets from last season's 16, which was fourth-most among TEs.
Aaron Jones Player Note
RB - Round 5, Pick 48 - Bye 6
2024 Rank: 58 - 2023 Rank: 58
Released by the Packers this offseason, Jones signed a one-year, $7 million contract with Minnesota and now gets two opportunities to face his former team (if he stays healthy). It remains to be seen how much work Jones can handle with age 30 coming up in December, but when he was healthy last season he looked about as good as ever, closing out the season with five straight 100-yard rushing performances (including the playoffs). He's averaged 5.0 yards per carry for his career -- never less than 4.6 in a season -- and has consistently averaged about four targets per game while scoring far more receiving TDs than a typical running back (17 in five seasons under Matt LaFleur). Jones could get similar per-game workloads (or even larger) in Minnesota, where there's no established veteran backup or early draft pick behind him in the backfield. On the other hand, Jones has never averaged more than 14.8 carries per game and isn't likely to start now as he approaches age 30 with a lengthy history of knee sprains and hamstring strains. The Vikings figure to use another back off the bench to lighten Jones' load, with Ty Chandler being the favorite after he made some noise late last season.
Joe Burrow Player Note
QB - Round 6, Pick 53 - Bye 12
2024 Rank: 67 - 2023 Rank: 67
Burrow entered 2023 limited by a preseason calf injury and struggled early, throwing just two TD passes in the first four weeks. The next five games, though, his health improved and with it his play, as he threw 12 touchdowns and averaged almost 300 passing yards per game. Then came a wrist injury in Week 11 and his season was done. Aside from good health from the jump this year, Burrow would help himself if he tried to stretch the field once in a while. He averaged 6.8 air yards per attempt in 2022 and dropped even further to 6.3 last year -- 32nd in the league. Why he doesn't air it out more often is unknown, as few teams have a better duo of downfield threats than Cincinnati's Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Burrow is healthy again, but aside from Chase and Higgins the skill positions are a bit of a question. The Bengals traded Joe Mixon to Houston, leaving former Colts backup Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown as the top running backs. The Bengals also lost slot receiver Tyler Boyd and are now counting on rookie third-round pick Jermaine Burton or 2023 sixth-rounder Andrei Iosivas to step up as the No. 3 receiver. At tight end, the top receiving option figures to either be discount free-agent signing Mike Gesicki or holdover Tanner Hudson. One thing that isn't in doubt is Burrow's volume. After 606 attempts in 2022, he was on pace for more than 600 again last season before getting hurt. As long as he gets that many opportunities and adds a few points here and there on the ground, it won't be hard to stay in the top-10 QBs for fantasy.
Christian Kirk New Player Note
WR - Round 7, Pick 68 - Bye 12
2024 Rank: 63 - 2023 Rank: 63
Kirk had career highs for receiving yards (1,108) and touchdowns (eight) in 2022, his first season with the Jaguars, and he was on pace for another 1,000-yard season last year until a core muscle injury cost him the final five games. He was Trevor Lawrence's favorite target even after the Jaguars added Calvin Ridley, whose presence didn't prevent Kirk from finishing 2023 with career highs for target rate (22.5 percent) and yards per route (2.08). The Jags have since parted ways with Ridley and Zay Jones, bringing in first-round pick Brian Thomas and former Bill Gabe Davis as the replacements at wide receiver. The addition of two big receivers could allow Kirk to play even more of his snaps from the slot -- where he's at his best -- and he might still be Lawrence's favorite receiver even if Thomas is now the most physically talented.
Najee Harris Player Note
RB - Round 8, Pick 73 - Bye 9
2024 Rank: 69 - 2023 Rank: 69
Harris is a good player and remains the starting running back for the Steelers, but it's looking unlikely that he'll ever live up to expectations for a 24th overall pick. His triumphant rookie-year fantasy performance now seems ages ago, with his usage falling from 307 carries and 94 targets in 2021 to 255 carries and 37 targets last year. Harris' decline occurred for strategic reasons, not because of injuries (he's never missed a game) or bad luck. His receiving skills are adequate but nothing special, and he's gained more than 25 yards on just two of his 834 carries in the NFL. Fellow running back Jaylen Warren got his foot in the door in 2022 and has since proven better in both regards, leaving Harris to do a lot of bruising between the tackles. While his pass-catching chances have dried up for the foreseeable future, Harris' fantasy floor remains relatively solid as the lead ballcarrier in a run-heavy offense -- one that could provide more touchdown opportunities now that Russell Wilson is replacing Kenny Pickett at quarterback and Arthur Smith is taking over for Matt Canada as the offensive coordinator.
Nick Chubb No new player Notes
RB - Round 9, Pick 88 - Bye 10
2024 Rank: 116 - 2023 Rank: 116
Chubb went down Week 2 last season with ACL, MCL and meniscus tears in his left knee, starting a lengthy rehab process that included a follow-up surgery Nov. 14. He faces a challenge to be ready for the early part of the 2024 season, but it's worth mentioning that he already overcame an injury of similar severity in 2015 when he played at Georgia. The bad news there is that the first injury was also a tear of his left knee, and while Chubb came back the next season he wasn't quite as dominant as in his other college campaigns. Between Chubb's first, second and fourth years at Georgia he averaged 6.8 yards per carry. In his third season, the one after the knee injury, he averaged 5.0 YPC. He might be able to avoid a similar decline if the rehab process isn't rushed this summer/fall, but that would also mean holding him out and/or restricting his workloads early in the season. Jerome Ford may get another chance to lead Cleveland's backfield, at least temporarily, with D'Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong providing competent depth. If you're drafting Chubb in fantasy it should probably be as a bench stash to eventually help out in November and December, not with any expectation of starting early in the season.
Jayden Daniels Player Note
QB - Round 10, Pick 93 - Bye 14
2024 Rank: 81 - 2023 Rank: 81
Daniels is expected to enter the season as a starter after the Commanders drafted him second overall this April. Marcus Mariota was signed as insurance, but Daniels took most of the first-team reps in training camp and was named as the starter for Washington's preseason opener. Durability was one of the few major concerns about Daniels during the draft process, as he's rather slim at 6-4, 210. Another issue was his lack of standout play prior to his Heisman-winning season at LSU last year. The Commanders, though, see a near-elite arm with accuracy to all parts of the field and good touch on deep balls. Daniels led the nation last season in air yards per attempt (10.2) and YPA (11.7) and still ranked seventh in completion percentage (72.2), i.e., his accuracy wasn't a product of easy passes. Daniels' running ability is perhaps the most intriguing aspect for fantasy, as he topped 2,000 rushing yards and scored 21 TDs over his last two years at LSU. The Commanders have a decent group of playmakers, including RB Austin Ekeler, WR Terry McLaurin, WR Jahan Dotson and TE Zach Ertz. The team also drafted TE Ben Sinnott and WR Luke McCaffrey in Rounds 2 and 3, respectively. Daniels' skills seem to mesh with the scheme brought in by new coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, and the rookie's legs can carry him to fantasy relevance even if his passing stats are subpar.
Kansas City No new player Notes
DEF - Round 11, Pick 108 - Bye 6
2024 Rank: 182 - 2023 Rank: 182
Kansas City's defense was one of the biggest stories of the 2023 NFL season, but the unit finished just 13th in fantasy points after back-to-back years in the No. 8 spot. Led by Steve Spagnuolo, in his fifth season as defensive coordinator, the Chiefs excelled, finishing second in both points and yards allowed during the regular season and then allowing just 15.75 points per game in four playoff contests. The Chiefs defended the pass better than the run, ranking second in sacks, QB hits, and pressure rate while tying for the fourth fewest passing TDs allowed (19). Though they had few takeaways, their barrage of sacks -- led by DT Chris Jones (10.5), DE George Karlaftis (10.5), and DE Charles Omenihu (7.0) -- compensated for it in real life, if not fantasy. The Chiefs return 12 of the 15 players who played at least 400 defensive snaps last year, with CB L'Jarius Sneed, LB Willie Gay, and S Mike Edwards being the exceptions. While Gay and Edwards were weaker links, replacing Sneed will be challenging, with third-year pros Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson expected to compete for the job. Even with Sneed gone, the Chiefs defense should remain strong thanks to Spagnuolo, Jones, CB Trent McDuffie and LB Nick Bolton.
Evan McPherson No new player Notes
K - Round 12, Pick 113 - Bye 12
2024 Rank: 249 - 2023 Rank: 249
McPherson's 2021 was one of the best years ever by a rookie kicker, featuring nine field goals of 50-plus yards (on 11 attempts) during the regular season and then 20 kicks without a single miss during the playoffs. He was merely average in his second season, going 5-of-5 from 50-plus but just 19-of-24 inside 50 yards. McPherson rebounded some last year, going 7-of-12 from 50-plus and 19-of-19 on shorter kicks. Overall, he's made 83.9 percent of field-goal attempts and 95.5 percent of PATs, including 75 percent of his long-distance attempts (21 of 28). The solid track record and favorable team context put McPherson in the second tier of kickers for fantasy this season, making him a worthwhile pick toward the end of drafts.
Xavier Legette Player Note
WR - Round 13, Pick 128 - Bye 11
2024 Rank: 202 - 2023 Rank: 202
Legette seems to come with less hype than normal for a rookie WR drafted in the first round, in part because he was taken with the last pick of the round (32) and in part because he had just one big season in college. Landing in Carolina doesn't help either, even if there's limited optimism that new coach Dave Canales can salvage second-year QB Bryce Young after his miserable rookie year. The Panthers are counting on Legette to help, hoping that 4.39 speed in a RB-sized frame (6-1, 221) can make the rookie a factor on deep balls and screens even if he needs more time to work out the finer points of his position. He was a four-star recruit who had only 423 yards over his first four years at South Carolina, before blowing up in 2023 for a 71-1,255-7 receiving line. The massive final season combined with impressive workout numbers turbo-charged Legette's draft stock and now have him in a good position to get playing time early on. The Chargers don't have much else at wide receiver besides veterans Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson, both of whom tend to catch short passes and are considerably smaller and slower than Legette.
Brock Bowers No new player Notes
TE - Round 14, Pick 133 - Bye 10
2024 Rank: 123 - 2023 Rank: 123
Bowers was drafted 13th overall by the Raiders this spring, following an outstanding three-year stint at Georgia with 2,538 receiving yards, 31 scrimmage touchdowns (26 receiving, five rushing) and two NCAA championships. The 6-foot-3 tight end has a unique skill set for the position, excelling with the ball in his hands and running around or through defenders, something like a TE version of 49ers WR Deebo Samuel. Bowers is perhaps on the small side for an NFL tight end, but not drastically so: he was listed at 230 pounds in college and weighed 243 at the 2024 Combine. He didn't perform drills at the combine due to a hamstring injury, but he reportedly broke 4.6 seconds in the 40-yard dash at a subsequent private workout. While he looks like a rare talent, Bowers doesn't have the best situation for immediate fantasy production, joining an offense with subpar QBs, another early draft pick at tight end (2023 second-rounder Michael Mayer) and target-hogging wide receiver Davante Adams. On the other hand, Bowers may be good enough to jump right ahead of Mayer into a near-every-down role, and reliance on yards gained after the catch could reduce vulnerability to poor QB play.
Jameson Williams No new player Notes
WR - Round 15, Pick 148 - Bye 5
2024 Rank: 107 - 2023 Rank: 107
Williams still has a chance to live up to his billing as the 12th overall pick in 2022, and the Lions' lack of additions at his position this offseason suggests they think he can do just that. After missing most of his debut season to rehab an ACL tear, Williams was suspended for the first six weeks of 2023 for using an app to gamble from the team facility. He then rotated with Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond for much of last year, with Amon-Ra St. Brown being Detroit's only WR to get a full starter's workload and steady stream of targets. The speedy Williams ran a lot of deep routes and never saw more than seven targets in a game, but he did contribute a bunch of big plays, including a 42-yard TD run and three-yard TD catch in the NFC Championship Game. The Lions are bringing back offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and most of their starters, with Reynolds and RG Jonah Jackson being the exceptions. Williams will have another chance to break out, and this time without a gambling suspension standing in his way.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Points
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
jay's Spectacular Team | ||
---|---|---|
1. | (8) | Justin Jefferson (Min - WR) |
2. | (13) | Jahmyr Gibbs (Det - RB) |
3. | (28) | Drake London (Atl - WR) |
4. | (33) | Sam LaPorta (Det - TE) |
5. | (48) | Aaron Jones (Min - RB) |
6. | (53) | Joe Burrow (Cin - QB) |
7. | (68) | Christian Kirk (Jax - WR) |
8. | (73) | Najee Harris (Pit - RB) |
9. | (88) | Nick Chubb (Cle - RB) |
10. | (93) | Jayden Daniels (Was - QB) |
11. | (108) | Kansas City (KC - DEF) |
12. | (113) | Evan McPherson (Cin - K) |
13. | (128) | Xavier Legette (Car - WR) |
14. | (133) | Brock Bowers (LV - TE) |
15. | (148) | Jameson Williams (Det - WR) |